J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects: Australia First To Market

Research evidence excerpt

J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects: Australia First To Market

Asia Pacific Equity Research

Australia First to Market 29 July 2026

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Mid-Year Prospects (Bryan Raymond)

Consumer

This report forms part of the J.P. Morgan Australia Mid-Year Prospects series as we take stock at the mid-point of 2026 and set

out our Top Picks and Least Preferred stocks for the remainder of the year.

Australian Banks (Andrew Triggs)

Challengers turn up the heat in the deposit market

An already crowded Australian retail deposit market appears to be getting more crowded, following MQG’s recent

announcement of its new Digital Term Deposit offering and Revolut (not listed) securing its Australian Deposit-Taking Institution

licence from APRA. These developments are likely to compound the recent trend of retail deposit market share loss for legacy

players, which has seen the Big 4 shed 860bps of share to MQG and non-majors over the last 10 years. Major bank business

deposit market shares have proven more resilient, and are probably less threatened by new entrants. A sustained increase in

deposit competition would put not-insignificant pressure on major bank NIMs and growth, particularly CBA and WBC (both UW

rated) which are the largest players in the retail deposit market. We note that recent deposit growth trends have slowed and

medium/long tenor TD spreads have deteriorated vs swaps. ANZ (OW) looks least impacted by rising Australian deposit

competition, but it needs to do more to grow its low-cost deposit base to improve returns (which is likely to be a slow burn).

Genesis Minerals (Jonathon Sharp) (GMD AU, OW, PT A$7.40)

JunQ26: An in-line quarter, FY27 guidance highlights cost pressures; retain OW