Unite Group: 1H26 Wrap: Adjusting for lower values as debate on operational outlook turns ever so slightly more positive

Research evidence excerpt

Unite Group: 1H26 Wrap: Adjusting for lower values as debate on operational outlook turns ever so slightly more positive

Neil Green, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-4478 28 July 2026 C A Z E N O V E

neil.d.green@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We believe Unite has a high-quality portfolio that is aligned with

the best universities across the UK, as well as a quality

management team. The sector emerged from the pandemic in

robust fashion, although recent concerns around overall

occupancy and the recovery in international student numbers

has weighed in 2025. However, demographic trends are

supportive and sector supply of new stock is low.

Valuation

Our target price for Unite Group is based on our total returns-

YTD 1m 3m 12m

Abs -0.4% 5.9% 19.7% -28.7% based European Valuation Model, which takes into account

whether a company creates or destroys value. We argue that

Company Data

companies that have a positive spread between returns and their

Shares O/S (mn) 515 weighted average cost of capital (WACC) should trade at a

52-week range (p) 791-442

Market cap ($ mn) 3,757.89 premium to NNAV, whereas those with a negative spread should

Exchange rate 75.25 be priced below NNAV. We apply this spread to the invested

Free float (%) 92.8% capital, discount back, and add/subtract to our NNAV forecast to

3M ADV (mn) 1.93

3M ADV ($ mn) 12.9 derive our price target.

Volatility (90 Day) 23

Index -

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 9|6|1 Performance Drivers

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

£ in millions FY25A FY26E FY27E

Financial Estimates

Revenue 304 355 358

Adj. EBITDA 263 305 313

Adj. EBIT 263 305 313

Adj. net income 232 220 216

Adj. EPS 47.41 41.90 41.99

BBG EPS 47.40 41.90 42.20

Cashflow from operations 186 189 184

FCFF 232 283 294