Silver Sunset: Top EU TMT Talking Points Today - Let‘s Discuss

Research evidence excerpt

Silver Sunset: Top EU TMT Talking Points Today - Let‘s Discuss

es remain large. The Reuters article out today further

reinforces this view and report that “Aishengna’s DUV machine is expected to require further testing and remains far from

matching the Dutch firm’s competing model”. For now, I view the reaction as another positioning-driven headline rather than a

fundamental change to the ASML thesis. Despite ASML remaining a relatively crowded position (with smaller size), I continue to

view the setup as increasingly attractive. Into earnings, positioning was full but the stock itself had lagged the broader US peer

group, and I don’t think management could realistically have delivered a stronger update. In the absence of order disclosures, the

investment debate has shifted away from headline numbers and towards management’s messaging, where I thought ASML

provided significantly more granularity than expected, particularly around 2027-28 capacity and pricing. While some investors

focused on the 85 EUV tool indication for 2027 as a disappointment, I think that misses the point; management were clear this is

not a ceiling, with capacity able to move higher if demand warrants it. As a result, investors have already begun modelling closer

to 90-95 EUV tools for 2027 and 110-120 for 2028, driving a meaningful uplift in 2028 EPS expectations from roughly €60-65

pre-results to €70-75 today, with some now as high as €80. Against that backdrop, valuation still looks compelling, particularly if

the broader market begins rewarding quality semiconductor capital equipment names again. The latest data points from ASML,

TSMC and hyperscaler capex commentary continue to reinforce the strength of the underlying AI investment cycle. We have also