JPM | M&A 2026 Mid-Year Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | M&A 2026 Mid-Year Outlook

merica, M&A activity dominated the global total and skewed toward large-scale transactions,

totaling $2.1T in 1H 2026 with 37 mega-deals, and 8 of the 10 top deals occurring intra-U.S. This strength aligned with markets

rewarding scale and growth and boards pivoting from capital returns toward reinvestment and capability-building, including AI-

linked priorities. Cross-border momentum also strengthened in the first half, increasingly anchored in strategic resilience and

security alignment and propelled by critical sectors such as technology and financials.

Regulatory Environment: The regulatory backdrop in 1H 2026 was comparatively more navigable for well-prepared deals, with

scrutiny increasingly framed around national security, FDI, and outbound investment controls—shifting regulation toward an

execution framework (clear rationale, early diligence, and credible mitigation) rather than a binary roadblock. In the U.S., 2025

saw 16 merger investigations (second-lowest ever) and only 4 in 1Q 2026, while abandonments fell ~90% as agencies

increasingly favored settlements over litigation. In the EU, 2025 had 11 merger investigations (second-lowest in a decade) and

just 1 in 1Q 2026 (a decade low), alongside a higher propensity to clear with remedies—80%+ of investigations saw Phase 1

remedies in 2025 vs 50% in 2024.

Cross-border M&A: Cross-border M&A strengthened in 1H 2026 and was increasingly anchored in strategic resilience and

security alignment, with deal rationale shaped by geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and “friendshoring”/supply-chain

and energy security considerations. Cross-border activity rose 63% YoY to $820B, representing 26% of total global M&A