My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks · Insurance · Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks · Insurance · Diversified Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nrob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 28 July 2026

My 2c on Financials

Rob O’Dwyer

+1 2126222673

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

Key Highlights

• Risk Backdrop ahead of Fed

• Earnings - SPGI / PYPL / IVZ / BRO / PFG

Morning – Obviously a lot to digest in numbers this morning but I think it’s worth reflecting on the broad risk backdrop given the

continued rotation into fins/broadening of fins strength. Yesterday was a classic quant/multi-manager de-grossing session: low-

touch volumes ran +25-30% while HT activity was notably subdued (-10% vs. 20-day average). We're in the middle of another

momentum unwind, now the largest two-day drawdown since July 1-2. Sellers showed up in many of the usual shorts (TOST,

EFX, GPN, FI, etc.) with very little natural demand to absorb the flow. Getting through Wednesday's Fed should help sentiment.

JPM research is looking for a hawkish hold.

Numbers wise today, lots of focus on PYPL and SPGI in particular:

PYPL (=) Fundamentally less controversial now that there's a bid under the stock, but this print should only reinforce pressure on

management to engage with Stripe/Advent. Results cleared a low bar: branded TPV +2% (vs. JPMe +1%) drove TMD +1%

versus guidance for -3%, while adj. EPS fell just 1% versus guidance for -9%. 3Q guidance was modestly better than feared and

effectively implies a 4Q in line with consensus. The problem remains the KPIs. FX-neutral TPV growth of 9% alongside low-

single-digit branded growth points to continued share loss. Branded checkout growth of 2% is best described as "stabilizing," not

improving.