PetroChina (0857.HK / 601857.SS): Model Update;2Q Preview

Research evidence excerpt

PetroChina (0857.HK / 601857.SS): Model Update;2Q Preview

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28 Jul 2026 09:15:36 ET │ 15 pages

PetroChina (0857.HK / 601857.SS)

Model Update; 2Q Preview

CITI'S TAKE

Oscar Yee AC

We update our PetroChina models to reflect Citi’s latest Brent oil +852-2501-2473

assumptions ($75/70/65 in 3Q/4Q26/2027E). Our Global Commodities oscar.yee@citi.com

Team’s base case view is for eventual de-escalation despite near-term SoH

disruption risks (Oil Monitor on 21 Jul, 13 Jul) while there seems a low Desmond Law

probability of the Middle East conflict turning from temporary shock into desmond.law@citi.com

multi-year crude production disruption (Commodities Wildcards 2H’26).

Given a significant widening of Russian oil discount vs. other imported

crudes (by ~$6/bbl QoQ in 2Q) and jet fuel crack strength, we believe

PetroChina could more than mitigate PRC gasoline/diesel margin pressure.

Natural gas marketing also saw enhanced competitiveness under LNG price

spike. Overall, PetroChina remains our top China O&G pick.

2Q Preview — We forecast 2QE net profit to rise ~26% QoQ / 63% YoY to ~Rmb61bn

due to higher crude price (partly offset by ~$10/bbl windfall profit tax) and resilient

downstream performance. Despite seasonally softer realisation, unit gas EBIT could

improve YoY on flattish pipeline gas import cost (2Q: Rmb1.70/m3 vs. Rmb1.69 in 1Q)

reiterating its sourcing capability given elevated LNG price (2Q: Rmb2.96/m3, 1Q:

Rmb2.38, likely to jump further in 3QE) on Middle East supply shortfall. On refining

GRM, the domestic NDRC gasoline/diesel price absorption (fully normalized by end-

Jun) could drag about half of its output slate by ~$5/bbl (~$2.5/bbl net GRM impact)

mitigated by the market-based jet fuel rally (~$3.8/bbl net to GRM) and likely

Inventory gain.