United Parcel Service: First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

United Parcel Service: First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

United Parcel Service Neutral

UPS, UPS US

First Look at 2Q26 Earnings Price (27 Jul 26):$112.95

Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Initial reaction - Modest Positive. We expect UPS will move higher on the 2Q26 Shipping

beat and raise which essentially keeps the implied 2H26 outlook unchanged. The Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

stock had run up into the print which could mute the reaction today, especially as (1-212) 622-1023

there are still several questions on how UPS can achieve the back half earnings brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

ramp. At this point, we are not as concerned as many investors appear to be on 2H26 Grady Carr

considering most of the key issues are 2027 events including a new pilot contract, (1-212) 622-1251

grady.carr@jpmchase.com

USPS concerns over the airfreight contract, and accelerating wage inflation into

Brandon Wexler

another Teamsters negotiation.

(1-212) 622-1956

• 2026 revenue guidance raised while margins decline. Management lifted brandon.wexler@jpmchase.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

the 2026 revenue guide to $91.2B from $89.7B and expects $8.65B of adjusted

operating profit, resulting in a margin of 9.5% and EPS of $7.22 compared to

previous expectations of 9.6% and roughly flat YoY. Consensus expectations

were slightly lower for revenue ($90.4B), operating profit ($8.57B) and EPS

($7.11) although our conversations suggested the buyside was generally much

more skeptical of the implied ramp-up into 2H26. Raising the revenue outlook

by $1.5B and reducing the underlying margin profile seems unlikely to

alleviate these concerns. The segment level details will be a key focal point of