Comcast: Largely Maintain Broadband Forecasts; Lower C&P EBITDA on Outlook for "Modest Improvement"

Research evidence excerpt

Comcast: Largely Maintain Broadband Forecasts; Lower C&P EBITDA on Outlook for "Modest Improvement"

2027E today). Adj. EBITDA - 27E ($ mn) 33,580 33,017 -1.7%

• Raise 2026 BB net losses to 497k on flow-through of 2Q results; raise 2026 Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

wireless net adds to 1.73m following record results. While 2Q residential BB Adj. EPS ($)

net losses of 167k were slightly worse than our -160k estimate, they improved 2025A 2026E 2027E

34k y/y; we maintain our 3Q BB loss estimate of 115k, which implies a 24k Q1 0.79 0.64A 0.80

Q2 0.98 0.93A 0.98

wider loss y/y vs. 3Q25's -91k. Our 3Q estimate compares against Q3 0.90 1.03 0.97

management's expectation that the BB market will remain "intensely Q4 0.61 0.69 0.75

competitive" as fiber continues to expand, FWA stays aggressive, and satellite FY 3.28 3.29 3.50

emerges. That said, Comcast's strategic pivot (pricing/packaging changes and

Style Exposure

customer experience investments) appears to be gaining traction, as evidenced

by improving NPS. In wireless, following another quarter of record net adds

(448k vs. our +400k), reflecting stronger gross adds and lower churn despite

free-line cohorts rolling to paid, we raise 2026 net adds to 1.73m (from 1.60m),

including +425k in 3Q. Comcast also launched its T-Mobile MVNO for

Business in the quarter, with growth anticipated in 2H.

• Trim 3Q total C&P revenue slightly to $19.74b; lower BB revenue estimate

0.3% on softer ARPU. Consistent with expectations for a "modest

improvement" in residential BB trends, aided by lapping the prior year's

pricing/packaging reset and the conversion of free wireless lines to paid, we

reduce our 3Q ARPU forecast to $72.98 (-3.3% y/y vs. -3.8% in 2Q), with

residential broadband revenue of $6.22b (-5.0% y/y). For FY26, we forecast a