Sampo: 2Q26E Preview – favourable MTM, underlying steady, modest Solvency drag

Research evidence excerpt

Sampo: 2Q26E Preview – favourable MTM, underlying steady, modest Solvency drag

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

Sampo Overweight

SAMPO.HE, SAMPO FH

2Q26E Preview – favourable MTM, underlying steady, Price (27 Jul 26):€9.67

modest Solvency drag Price Target (Dec-27):€11.30

We update our estimates ahead of Sampo’s 2Q26 results on 12th August, where we European Insurance

ACexpect steady delivery and limited surprises. Our 2026E PBT increases 7%, Nadia Claressa

primarily reflecting more favourable mark-to-market effects in the net financial (44-20) 7134-7613

result, while our operating result reduces 1%, driven by the weather impact in Q2. nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

Kamran M Hossain

• 2Q26E PBT tailwinds from the net financial result. In contrast to Q1, we (44-20) 3493-3780

expect mark-to-market impacts from equities, spreads and interest rates to kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

benefit the net financial result for the quarter. Total return from NOBA, the Farooq Hanif

group’s largest direct equity holding, was broadly flat over Q2, however we (44 207) 742-8091

expect other holdings to provide a net positive P&L contribution. farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

• 20bps underlying margin improvement expected, Q2 weather impact. At Bingdi(44-20) 7742-5336Fan, CFA

the group level, we assume a combined ratio of 83.2%, which includes bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

~1.3%pts of weather impact in the Nordics, mainly arising from Storm Dave J.P. Morgan Securities plc

(~€20m). We anticipate marginal improvement in the underlying Nordic risk

ratio to continue at 20bps YoY as the current book continues to earn through Specialist Sales contact details:

the pricing actions. For Private UK, we assume a combined ratio of ~89.5% and Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -