BNP Paribas: Strong top-line momentum and rising capital returns – remain OW

Research evidence excerpt

BNP Paribas: Strong top-line momentum and rising capital returns – remain OW

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

BNP Paribas Overweight

BNPP.PA, BNP FP

Strong top-line momentum and rising capital returns – Price (27 Jul 26):€107.58

remain OW ▲Price Target (Dec-27):€119.00 Prior (Dec-27):€110.00

BNP’s strong top-line momentum – led by French Retail, Belgium Retail and the

CIB (with solid Private Banking and Insurance) – is driving EPS upgrades of European Banks

2%/2%/4% for 2026/27/28e, respectively, more than offsetting continued Delphine Lee AC

weakness in Arval used-car sales and softer revenues in Asset Management and (44-20) 7134-3971

BNL; we also see FY26 guidance as conservative and expect ROTE to improve delphine.x.lee@jpmorgan.com

further to 14% in 2028e. With CET1 already at ~13% at end-Q2, we see clear scope Kian Abouhossein

for higher distributions and now assume total payout rises towards ~75% by FY28e (44-20) 7134-4575

kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

(including larger buybacks), lifting total yield from ~6.7% (2026e) and ~7.4% J.P. Morgan Securities plc

(2027e) to ~9.8% (2028e), while keeping CET1 above 13%, with potential upside

from additional excess-capital returns.We remain OW BNP, trading at an Specialist Sales contact details:

undemanding 7.2x PE, 1x P/NAV for RoNAV 14.2% in 2028e, with significant Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

re-rating potential as the bank delivers higher capital and distribution, and European Financials

improves profitability over time. (44-20) 7134-0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

• EPS upgrades on strong top-line performance: Whilst Arval is still affected Key Changes (FYE Dec)

by lower Used Car Sales results, revenue momentum was very strong in French Prev Cur Δ