Japan banks: Points to watch in FY26 Q1 results announcements

Research evidence excerpt

Japan banks: Points to watch in FY26 Q1 results announcements

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026Japan banks

EQUITY: JAPAN BANKS

Points to watch in FY26 Q1 results Research Analysts

announcements Japan banks Ken Takamiya - NSC

We assume strong earnings, but think stock market has already priced ken.takamiya@nomura.com

this in to some extent +81 3 6703 1140

Investment stance: We remain bullish on major bank stocks

We reiterate our bullish stance on the major banks sector. We think Q1 results will show

strong performance. At the same time, market participants already look to be expecting

favorable earnings to some extent. Over the longer term, we expect bank stocks to find

support from expectations for normalization of monetary policy and sustained

improvements in earnings, given their high earnings and share price sensitivity to BOJ

rate hikes and rising interest rates. As confirmed in 26/3 results, bank stocks see less P/L

impact from geopolitical factors than other sectors. We note, however, that since bank

stocks have not seen major profit-taking even after the BOJ's June rate hike was

confirmed, we cannot rule out the possibility that they could undergo some degree of

share price consolidation in the near term as the market waits for the next rate hike.

Earnings: Loan–deposit operations in Japan performing well; minimal impact from

situation in Middle East

We expect Q1 results at major banks to show favorable performance toward full-year

guidance, as in previous years. This is because: (1) initial guidance was somewhat

conservative, reflecting the impact of the conflict in the Middle East since March; (2)

momentum in client-facing operations, which had been strong through 26/3, has actually