G10 FX

Research evidence excerpt

G10 FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 28 July 2026

EUR Commenting on the Middle East and tech stocks every day and handicapping the goings on with

respect to outcomes is certainly not my forte so won’t try to draw any huge conclusions. Prefer

myself to wait for the Fed this week before adding any great conviction here, especially with

month end to navigate as well in the coming sessions. On my return does seem conviction

levels have plummeted in the last few weeks and clients aren’t running particularly high

risk levels with a reasonably wide range of views on US rates in particular.

Initial thoughts are G10 remains tough here although given the SNB source story yesterday

using the chf as a funder in some shape or form continues to make sense to me as a stand out, on

the EM side I think huf trades reasonably resiliently in the face of goings on elsewhere so retain

small bullish exposure there.

No respite for the euro despite the drift in energy prices this week, maybe some month end

dollar demand weighing or perhaps some continued wariness around a Fed hike/hawk this week,

nonetheless price action is still pretty lacklustre overall, I don’t particularly want to chase

anything at this juncture so will await Warsh tomorrow evening. IFO yesterday small beat but

again how much of the recent energy price spike does that encapsulate is the question.

GBP The scope of the oil moves remains pretty eye opening but FX remains largely desensitized

while the reaction in fixed income is arguably pretty disappointing as well given Fed pricing has

not really moved for tomorrow. Throw in some tech wobbles and the looming randomness of