IGO Ltd.: Improved Greenbushes quarter but grades remain low; EBITDA hit from Kwinana; retain Neutral

Research evidence excerpt

IGO Ltd.: Improved Greenbushes quarter but grades remain low; EBITDA hit from Kwinana; retain Neutral

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

28 July 2026

IGO Ltd. Neutral

IGO.AX, IGO AU

Improved Greenbushes quarter but grades remain low; Price (27 Jul 26):A$6.75

EBITDA hit from Kwinana; retain Neutral ▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$7.60 Prior (Jun-27):A$8.00

Key takeaways: 1) Greenbushes 4Q production of 387kt was ahead of our

forecast with CGP3 contributing 71kt (we had expected a greater impact from the Head of Australia Metals & Mining

fire); realised pricing of US$2,286/t was slightly ahead, as were costs at $448/t; Lyndon Fagan AC

80% EBITDA margin was in line with JPMe (but off a slightly higher revenue (61-2) 9003-8648

base). 2) FY27 guidance was broadly in line on GB production and costs, capex lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

came in below our forecasts – we had allowed some growth capex for early works

Metals & Mining

on converting the tailings retreatment plant to a full chemical grade treatment plant,

which we now remove (along with an associated 2Mtpa throughput reduction post Jonathon Sharp

2031). 3) Kwinana continues to be an earnings drag, reporting a $88m loss in the (61 2) 9003-8312

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

quarter on inventory impairment. Group EBITDA $118m was below our $154m J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

on the larger Kwinana loss, while net cash of $387m was also lower than we

Branko Skocic

forecast. We maintain our Neutral rating and preference for PLS/LTR for lithium (61-3) 9633-4069

exposure. Our NPV falls 7% after long-term mine plan revisions. We cut our price branko.skocic@jpmorgan.com

target to A$7.60 (from A$8.00). J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Devwrat Vegad