EM FX

Research evidence excerpt

EM FX

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 28 July 2026

RUB Bit of a nothing day in Rub fx, with spot ticking over gently in a 77.90/78.15 range. Saw some

rare inflows from corporate names but it barely moved the dial. Usd/rub still seems to

be capped by offers around 78.50. Maybe this supply will be less significant after month end

flows are executed. Until then it feels like we are in for the same old ranges.

ZAR The move below 16.70 was short lived yesterday, with USDZAR buying seen from HFs on the

dip. The pause in strikes in the Middle East, and subsequent lower oil price has provided some

further relief from markets this morning, although I think we will continue to see USDZAR

demand as we approach 16.60 support, especially ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. At 16.80

though struggling to see a clear direction; obviously the SARB policy mistake was a negative

for ZAR, but a lot of positioning has been reduced and if they hike and sound hawkish at the

next meeting then it is hard to see the pair above 17.00. Meanwhile US/Iran does sound a little

more positive, but it is also still difficult to see an agreement around the SoH, whilst the tech

rout seen in stocks is also weighing on risk. Therefore, more neutral for now and want to take

my cue from tomorrow’s FOMC.

TRY USDTRY moved briefly below 47.3500 yesterday as improving risk sentiment around Iran/US

and lower energy prices led to good sized offshore inflows. Local fx demand absorbed part of

those flows as the authorities took advantage of more favourable market conditions to

rebuild fx reserves. State bank offers are currently at 47.3800, although the market may