CEEMEA Insights: Türkiye: The landing is slow but not so soft anymore

Research evidence excerpt

CEEMEA Insights: Türkiye: The landing is slow but not so soft anymore

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026CEEMEA Insights

Economics - EEMEA/EMEA

Research AnalystsTürkiye: The landing is slow but not so soft

CEEMEA Researchanymore

Zumrut Imamoglu - NIplc

• The economy is showing more signs of cooling. Employment growth is at its slowest zumrut.imamogludemir@nomura.com

since the pandemic and bank loan growth is slightly negative in real terms, owing to +44 20 710 24980

tight macro prudential measures.

• The fiscal impulse is finally disinflationary, primary cash expenditures are growing at a

slower pace than inflation and the Treasury’s domestic debt roll-over has fallen below

100%.

• The CBRT has remained cautious and left its policy rate at 37% and the funding rate

at 40% at its recent meeting as the Brent oil price rose near USD100/bbl.

• Türkiye’s monetary and fiscal stance will likely be tight for the rest of the year which

will support disinflation, but owing to the rise in energy prices we raise our end-2026

inflation forecast to 28% from 27.7% and expect the policy rate to be 35% (34%

previously).

• In July, we expect inflation to drop further to 31.9% y-o-y (1.9% m-o-m).

Fig. 1: Employment growth is slowest since the pandemic

Change in seasonally adjusted employment y-o-y, millions people, paid workers by industry.

Source: Haver, TurkStat

Employment data show overall job growth is at its lowest since the pandemic

The unemployment rate has remained stable around 8.5% for a long time, hardly showing

any evidence of a recession or slowdown in the economy since 2020, but employment

data provide a different picture. After the 2008 crisis, the Turkish economy used to create

almost a million jobs a year (paid employment) (Fig.1). This number dropped to an