Japan: July 2026 PMI

Research evidence excerpt

Japan: July 2026 PMI

Global Markets Research

Japan: July 2026 PMI 24 July 2026

Economics - Japan

Readings suggest easing of volume constraints and growth in Research Analysts

demand Japan Economics

Yuki Ito - NSC

Risk of resurgence of volume constraints at least through autumn 2026 yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

Kyohei Morita - NSC • The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 54.7, above

kyohei.morita@nomura.com

the economic recovery/deterioration threshold of 50 for a seventh straight month. The +81 3 6703 1395

index appears to have been supported by: (1) an easing of volume-related supply

constraints for crude oil and naphtha; and (2) solid demand, particularly overseas.

• We nevertheless see a risk that the conflict between the US and Iran could cause

volume-related supply constraints, including for crude oil, to flare up again, at least

through autumn 2026, which could weigh on manufacturing output.

Manufacturing PMI: Readings suggest easing of volume constraints and growth in

demand

The S&P Global flash Japan manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 54.7, down 0.2pt

from the finalized reading for June. However, the reading remained above the economic

recovery/deterioration threshold of 50 for a seventh straight month.

The output index was up 1.8pt m-m at 56.1, the new orders index was up 0.6pt at 54.6,

the employment index was up 0.4pt at 53.7, and the stocks of items purchased index was

up 1.2pt at 52.0, all contributing to the rise in the headline manufacturing PMI. The

supplier delivery times index was up 6.5pt at 44.3, pushing down the headline reading.*

*Arise/fallinthesupplierdeliverytimesindexindicatesshorter/longerdeliverytimes

(weaker/strongerdemand)atsuppliersandcontributestoadecline/riseintheheadline

manufacturingPMI.