All-Japan CPI: June 2026: Core CPI accelerates, but limited impact from higher crude oil prices

Research evidence excerpt

All-Japan CPI: June 2026: Core CPI accelerates, but limited impact from higher crude oil prices

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026All-Japan CPI: June 2026

Economics - Japan

Research AnalystsCore CPI accelerates, but limited impact from

Japan Economicshigher crude oil prices

Uichiro Nozaki - NSC

Rising concerns over price pass-throughs this summer uichiro.nozaki@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1284

Kyohei Morita - NSC • Core CPI inflation accelerated from +1.4% y-y in May to +1.6% in June. However, this

kyohei.morita@nomura.com

largely reflects a y-y rebound, with no clear impact yet from higher crude oil prices. +81 3 6703 1395

Core-core CPI inflation eased over the previous month.

• Private-sector service price inflation was broadly flat at around 2%.

• Concerns about cost pass-throughs over summer picked up. That said, we do not

expect headline inflation to accelerate sharply, as the government has planned

measures to curb electricity and gas costs.

Overview: Core CPI inflation accelerates, while core-core CPI inflation slows

All-Japan core CPI inflation (all items, less fresh food) came in at +1.6% y-y in June

2026, accelerating from +1.4% in the previous month and in line with the market

consensus forecast (Bloomberg survey median) (Figure1). Inflation based on the BOJ's

version of the core-core CPI (all items less energy and fresh food) came in at +1.7%,

down from +1.8% a month earlier and below the market consensus forecast of +1.8%.

Inflation for all items excluding energy and food (but including alcoholic beverages)

(a definition similar to US core CPI) was +1.2%, up from +1.1% the previous month (

Figure4). Overall, there were no surprises.

Breakdown: (1) core CPI acceleration also reflects base effects from last year, (2)