1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions: 1H26F drug sales growth and collaboration revenue to help achieve positive earnings; reaffirm Buy

Research evidence excerpt

1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions: 1H26F drug sales growth and collaboration revenue to help achieve positive earnings; reaffirm Buy

Global Markets Research

Akeso 9926.HK 9926 HK 24 July 2026

EQUITY: HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS

Rating1H26F preview and FY26F forecast revisions Remains Buy

Target price1H26F drug sales growth and collaboration revenue to Reduced from HKD 138.29help achieve positive earnings; reaffirm Buy HKD 142.50

We estimate 1H26F topline of CNY2.4bn (+68% y-y) and net profit of CNY46mn Closing23 July 2026price HKD 102.80

We expect Akeso to report 1H26F revenue of CNY2.4bn (+68% y-y), among which drug

sales contribute CNY2.2bn (+55% y-y, or 33% more than that in 2H25), owing to the Implied upside +34.5%

continued sales ramp up of cadonilimab and ivonescimab.

We also forecast collaboration revenue of CNY200mn derived from out-licensing Market Cap (USD mn) 12,077.0

ADT (USD mn) 183.2ebronucimab to JumpCan (600566 CH, not rated) in February 2026.

We expect gross margin to improve by 2.3pp y-y to 81.7%, along with mild higher Relative performance chart

operating expense of CNY1.71bn(11% y-y) in 1H26F, resulting in a net profit estimate of

CNY46mn (vs. a loss of CNY570mn/ CNY543mn in 1H25/2H25).

For 2H26F, we forecast Akeso’s revenue of CNY2.7bn, owing to drug sales growth of

53% y-y to CNY2.5bn, and a net profit of CNY103mn.

We think the HARMONI-3 data readout and PDUFA decision(see our report: QuickNote-

Akeso(9926HK)(Buy)-ApositiveOSupdatefromHARMONi) are key catalysts for this

name in 2H26.

Maintain Buy rating and fine-tune TP to HKD138.29 from HKD142.50

We lower FY26F revenue/earnings by 5.9%/79.4%, to factor in a mix of our higher

candonilimab sales and lower collaboration revenue, and higher OPEX estimates.