Europe Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026Europe Economic Weekly

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

Research Analysts

Oil be back European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• The ECB left rates unchanged in a unanimous decision. Mme Lagarde gave a strong george.buckley@nomura.com

signal that the ECB will raise rates in September, without saying it outright. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc • New UK PM Andy Burnham's first week featured John Healey's surprise appointment andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

as Chancellor. Inflation fell, but core and services prices proved resilient. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Josie Anderson - NIplc

Week in review josie.anderson@nomura.com

The ECB left rates unchanged in a unanimous decision. Mme Lagarde gave as strong a +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

signal as possible that the ECB will hike rates in September without saying it outright.

Indeed, we believe the ECB will raise rates in September. After that, we expect no more

rate hikes. However, rising energy prices add to the possibility of further hikes after

September. Surveys this week showed softer price pressures and more optimism on

activity, but they likely do not incorporate much of the latest rise in energy prices.

New UK PM Andy Burnham's first week featured John Healey's surprise appointment as

Chancellor, and both pledged adherence to the fiscal rules. Early announcements have

been fairly small-scale and mostly funded by offsetting cuts, so markets will watch closely

for bolder moves. Meanwhile, UK inflation fell 0.2pp to 2.6% y-o-y, but core and services

proved resilient. Labour data showed stable unemployment and slowing wage growth,

while the July DMP survey indicated easing price growth and wage expectations.

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