First Insights: US: New tariff announcements point more to continuity than escalation

Research evidence excerpt

First Insights: US: New tariff announcements point more to continuity than escalation

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026First Insights

Economics - North America

Research AnalystsUS: New tariff announcements point more to

North America Economicscontinuity than escalation

Aichi Amemiya - NSI

• The Trump administration announced new tariffs under Section 301 to replace aichi.amemiya@nomura.com

expiring Section 122 universal 10% tariffs. A transition to Section 301 from Section +1 212 667 9347

122 tariffs will likely increase the average effective tariff rate by about 1pp to 8%, Jeremy Schwartz - NSI

broadly in line with ourexpectation. jeremy.schwartz@nomura.com

+1 212 667 9637

• However, there are mitigating measures in the announcement. The additional impact

Ruchir Sharma - NSI on imports from some major trading partners will be net out the MFN duties. In

ruchir.sharma@nomura.com

addition, the general exemption product list was expanded including some +1 212 667 9186

consumer/food products. Those modifications suggest that the Trump administration

did not intend to escalate tariff policy substantially.

• We continue to expect that increased focus on affordability issues and elevated

inflation will likely prevent US tariff policy from escalating drastically going forward. We

maintain our expectation for the terminal average effective tariff rate at the 8-9%

range.

• Major risks to monitor will be the ongoing USMCA negotiations as well as another

Section 301 investigation on excess production capacity.

The Trump administration announced new tariffs of either 10% or 12.5% against 60

trading partners based on Section 301 investigations over forced labor issues. The action

was aimed at replacing expiring Section 122 universal 10% tariffs. The transition to