Japan Economic Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Economic Weekly

Global Markets Research

24 July 2026Japan Economic Weekly

Economics - Japan

Focusing on comments about pace of rate hikes and BOJ Research Analysts

independence at Governor Ueda's press conference Japan Economics

Kyohei Morita - NSC

Bright outlook for semiconductor exports to China kyohei.morita@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1395

1.Japanesepolicy(BOJ):JulyMonetaryPolicyMeetingpreview(KyoheiMorita,

UichiroNozaki) Masaki Kuwahara - NSC

masaki.kuwahara@nomura.com

• We expect interest rates to be left unchanged at the July Monetary Policy Meeting. +81 3 6703 3876

However, hawkish members might also vote for a rate hike. We expect the BOJ to Kengo Tanahashi - NSC

lower its CPI outlook and raise its GDP outlook in the Outlook Report. kengo.tanahashi@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 1295

• It will be interesting to see whether Governor Ueda says anything in his post-meeting

Uichiro Nozaki - NSC press conference that might point to a faster pace of rate hikes, and whether he

uichiro.nozaki@nomura.com makes any comments about the BOJ's independence.

+81 3 6703 1284

2.Japaneseeconomy:MixedpictureforexportstoChina,brightoutlookfor Yuki Ito - NSC

semiconductorexports(YukiIto,ZhaoqiLiu) yuki.ito@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3867

• In this section, we focus on exports to China. By linking Chinese economic activity

with Japanese exports to China, we look to identify which items are likely to see Zhaoqi Liu - NSC

substantial growth. elias.liu@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3844

• We think conditions will remain conducive to growth in semiconductor exports to Yuna Minegishi - NSC

China, given: (1) the sustainability of the AI boom in China; and (2) the fact that Japan yuna.minegishi@nomura.com

has not fallen behind in semiconductor imports to China. +81 3 6703 1287