JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: SPM IM, ULVR LN, IPC LN

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | EMEA Spec Sits Daily: SPM IM, ULVR LN, IPC LN

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change the underlying numbers, we expect consensus to now be an apples-for-apples comparison, which is

incrementally helpful for investors. On organic sales growth, we now model 1.5% for FY26 (vs. ~2% guidance) and

3.6% for FY27 as we assume a slower recovery in both O&G (prolonged ME conflict) and in Construction. As such, our

adj. EBITA forecasts move 1%/2%/1% lower for FY26-FY28. We will assess the tactical set-up into the results nearer the

print and once we have an updated consensus excl. Detection. We remain OW as we continue to see “FutureSmiths” as

undervalued. Our price target increases to 3,100p (from 2,810p) as we roll forward our SOTP to Dec-27 (from Jun-

27). Smiths Group will report FY26 results on 22 September.

• Rio Tinto plc - H1’26 results updated preview (28th Jul): growth & strategy in focus; value emerging post 15% share

price decline since June- Dominic O'Kane here

• RIO will report H1’26 results on 28 July (23:00 UK). We provide an updated H1’26 earnings preview. We forecast H1’26

EBITDA of $15.2bn (in-line vs Cons), underlying earnings of $7.1bn (+8% vs Cons). At the divisional level, we are

slightly ahead for copper ($5.5bn) while broadly in-line for iron ore ($7.0bn) & aluminum ($3.2bn). Mgmt guided to

a ~$1.2bn working capital build for H1'26 and a ~$400m Mongolia tax payment in March. Rio Tinto plc has fallen ~18%

since June and it trades at a notable discount vs BHP (5.3x EV/EBITDA 2027E vs BHP 7.5x). As CEO Simon Trott is

approaching one year in the position; we expect further clarity on any potential shifts in strategy or opportunities to unlock

value. Although we see value emerging with RIO trading at spot ~5.0x EV/EBITDA 2027E and ~20% below our Fair