LV MH, Unilever, Kingfisher, Lottomatica, Nestle,...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

LV MH, Unilever, Kingfisher, Lottomatica, Nestle,...: EU Consumer Sector Specialist Commentary

rts

to improve execution and address underperformers, yet may not reassure on the nearer-term risk of softening organic sales exit

rate in H2 and into 2027, or visibility on connecting with 4%+ MT LFL. All details here

Food Retail - Lost in Translation - the FX tracker. Foreign exchange has re-emerged as a meaningful driver of both

fundamentals and factor behaviour across the group, and it tends to matter most precisely when volatility rises and ‘macro’

overwhelms single-name narratives. In this first publication of our new Food Retail FX tracker, we attempt to refresh investors on

where our companies’ exposures sit in the financial statements – what is translation versus true economic/transaction impact, and

what shows up on the balance sheet through net assets, funding and hedging. We will be updating it quarterly, and more

frequently if warranted by large FX moves. Within, we also pair company-quoted sensitivities with observed market correlations.

See for company-specific exposure and sensitivity analysis (company-calculated as well as JPM calculated). Overall, we would

be mindful of mixing mechanical earnings tailwinds driven by FX and interest rates, with improving fundamentals. All details

here

Previews:.

• Kingfisher (JPM UW, Placed on Pos Cat Watch). Q2/ H2 17 preview .–UK data and peer commentary for the period

suggest that the heatwave could have been at least slightly unhelpful for B&Q, and we forecast a LFL of -1% for the quarter

(below cons. for +1.3%). Similarly, given the very strong seasonal performance in H1 26, we expect H1 27 UK retail profit to

move backwards by 6% yoy, to £323m (leaving us 5% below cons.).