Silver Sunrise Euro TMT Daily: EU TMT Sector Specialist Commentary Telco·Media·Tech

Research evidence excerpt

Silver Sunrise Euro TMT Daily: EU TMT Sector Specialist Commentary Telco·Media·Tech

ere we raise our near term forecasts on the earlier qualification of the Singapore facility plus

higher levels of stocking at customers (ahead of production ramps). On gross margin, we raise our forecasts on higher fab

loading as indicated by CFO, but on operating costs we factor in lower grant offset than previously assumed (~€30m vs. ~

€20m); otherwise changes to profitability forecasts follow revenue revisions. The upgrades to FY27 and FY28 are large (to

small numbers) but more moderate to outer years (FY29). On FCF, we better reflect customer deposits on Silicon Photonics

which are expected to be received in FY27, which we note will positively support near-term free cash flow but will be a

headwind on delivery through the forecast period. A summary of forecast changes is provided below (Table 1), as well as a

comparison to latest Vara consensus (Table 2)

2. Tech Snippets - Press report on China’s immersion DUV tools is unlikely to impact ASML's earnings trajectory in the mid-

term- Sandeep Deshpande Read Full Note HereThe News: An unconfirmed article in The Information reports that an

unnamed state-backed Chinese manufacturer has started producing domestically developed immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV)

lithography machines, a segment dominated by ASML. Initial output is set to be limited, with roughly five machines this year

and about 20 in 2027. Deliveries are expected in 2026 to major domestic chipmakers including SMIC, Hua Hong

Semiconductor and ChangXin Memory Technologies. Immersion DUV is the most advanced lithography category still

accessible to Chinese firms after export curbs blocked EUV systems; a domestic EUV tool reportedly remains at the prototype

stage.