Barclays: Strong IB performance, distributions ahead; Expect low-single-digit upgrades to EPS expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Barclays: Strong IB performance, distributions ahead; Expect low-single-digit upgrades to EPS expectations

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

28 July 2026

Barclays Overweight

BARC.L, BARC LN

Strong IB performance, distributions ahead; Expect low- Price (27 Jul 26):530p

single-digit upgrades to EPS expectations Price Target (Dec-27):600p

Barclays’ 2Q Attributable profit was +5% ahead of company-compiled European Banks

ACexpectations, with ROTE of 16.1% reflecting the Group’s continued execution of Kian Abouhossein

its strategy. Total income was +3% ahead of expectations led by the IB (+8% (44-20) 7134-4575

ahead), with Equities (+44% y/y USD) and Banking (+30% y/y USD) exceeding kian.abouhossein@jpmorgan.com

high expectations post US IB results, driving an increase to FY26E total income Sheel Shah, CFA

guidance to c£31.5bn (vs cons. £31.2bn). Given the strong income performance, (44-20) 7134-8455

the Group expects c£0.45bn of incremental costs in 2H driven by up to £0.3bn sheel.shah@jpmorgan.com

higher structural cost actions (above the normal annual run-rate of c£0.3bn) Venkat Madasu

towards tech/org structure with c100% ROI expected within one year, and up to (44-20) 3493-9041

venkat.madasu@jpmorgan.com

c£0.15bn for mix changes to IB compensation to improve longer term cost J.P. Morgan Securities plc

flexibility, although with FY26E CIR still guided to the high 50s. The Group also

announced a buyback of £1bn (vs cons. £0.8bn) and DPS of 5.9p (vs cons. 5.2p), Specialist Sales contact details:

with CET1 of 14.3% (in line). BUK NII was slightly weaker than expected due to Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

a competitive ISA season, with the product margin (-£61m q/q) expected to at least European Financials