Freshpet, Inc.: 2Q26 Preview - Competitive Concerns Are Weighing on the Stock Price More Than Sales

Research evidence excerpt

Freshpet, Inc.: 2Q26 Preview - Competitive Concerns Are Weighing on the Stock Price More Than Sales

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

28 July 2026

Freshpet, Inc. Overweight

FRPT, FRPT US

2Q26 Preview - Competitive Concerns Are Weighing on Price (24 Jul 26):$57.54

the Stock Price More Than Sales ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$72.00 Prior (Dec-26):$68.00

Freshpet (FRPT - Overweight) is scheduled to report 2Q26 earnings on

Wednesday, August 5. Based on the continued strength of consumption trends Food Producers & Retailers

(+11.7% Y/Y in 2Q, per Circana), we think a sales beat is likely and model +11.4% Thomas Palmer, CFA AC

Y/Y, above the Bloomberg consensus of +10.4%. We think this sales upside could (1-212) 622-5582

translate to a slight EBITDA beat (FRPT is riding a 14 quarter streak of quarterly thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

EBITDA beats). We do not necessarily expect an outright guidance increase, but Brandon Cohen, CPA

sales and EBITDA seem to be tracking toward the upper end of FRPT’s annual (1-212) 622-4168

brandon.cohen@jpmorgan.com

range. We also think that the company could reiterate its 2027 EBITDA target of J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

20%, in part by boosting its gross margin outlook (currently 48%) to reflect

benefits of the new line technologies that it introduced earlier this year. We

appreciate that (a) it is tough to disprove the threat of competition and (b) the 2Q Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

sales upside is probably well-understood, but we still see a constructive set up into Adj. EPS ($)

2Q earnings, given the potentially positive forward commentary. 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 (0.26) 0.85A 0.13

• Updating estimates and price target. To reflect sales upside in 2Q and the Q2Q3 0.331.82 0.120.27 0.240.39