ChangXin Memory Technologies: The DRAM in the Chinese crown; initiate at Buy

Research evidence excerpt

ChangXin Memory Technologies: The DRAM in the Chinese crown; initiate at Buy

Global Markets Research

ChangXin Memory Technologies 688825.SS 688825 CH 27 July 2026

EQUITY: TECHNOLOGY

The DRAM in the Chinese crown; initiate at Buy RatingStarts at Buy

CXMT should continue to gain market share as global Target price Starts at CNY 116.00

supply of memory could remain tight

IPO price

27 July 2026 CNY 8.66

Initiate coverage at Buy with and a TP of CNY116

We initiate coverage of CXMT – China’s largest DRAM maker – at Buy with a TP of CNY116.

Implied upside +1,239.5%We expect CXMT’s market share gain to accelerate considering that the global supply of

memory is unlikely to ease in the coming years. Supported by capacity expansion, node

Market Cap (USD mn)

migration, and ASP hikes, we forecast CXMT to post 63%/74% sales/net profit to parent

CAGRs in 2026-28F. Our TP of CNY116 is based on 20x 2028F EPS of CNY5.8. We assign a

20x target P/E multiple as we expect CXMT to trade at 2x the valuation of its major US

competitor, Micron ([MU US, Not rated]; which has traded at ~10x over the past five years), Research Analysts

owing to market share gains and the higher valuation multiples in China’s market. Downside

Semiconductor

risks include: 1) worsening of end demand; 2) intensifying competition from domestic peers

Donnie Teng - NIHK

such as YMTC (unlisted); 3) insufficient supply of IC and components (e.g., CPUs); and 4)

donnie.teng@nomura.com

escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and China. +852 2252 1439

Demand could continue to outpace supply in the foreseeable future; CXMT appears Frank Fan - NIHK

well-positioned to gain market share frank.fan@nomura.com

We estimate that strong demand for agentic AI will drive a more than sevenfold increase in +852 2252 2195