Nomura Quant Insights

Research evidence excerpt

Nomura Quant Insights

Global Markets Research

27 July 2026Nomura Quant Insights

Cross-asset - Japan

Will near-term concerns be exhausted once hyperscaler earnings are out of the way? Biggest Research Analysts

risk lies in the bond market Macro Strategy / Quantitative

Strategy

FOMC entropy at one of highest levels ever /MOVE and hyperscaler Yoshitaka Suda - NSL

CDS spreads / No surprises from BOJ? yoshitaka.suda@nomura.com

+65 6433 6674

This week’s hyperscaler earnings are a crucial test for the AI trade / Recent share

price reactions not surprising/ Investors steadily adjust positions in anticipation of

a recovery in AI-driven market / Revision factor expected to rebound from Q1 to Q2 /

Middle East situation and buying of AI-related stocks as default choice

This week is packed with events. In the US equity options market, the largest event

premium continues to be assigned to hyperscaler earnings due to be released at the end

of the month (Figure1). Share price reactions to tech earnings have been remarkably

muted recently. ASML, TSMC, and Google delivered strong results, but the subsequent

reactions in share prices were all weak. We have begun to hear from market participants

asking what it would take to satisfy the market and whether the AI market has already

peaked. From a macro perspective, though, this reaction in the stock market does not

strike us as particularly surprising. As of 10 July, before the recent reversal got underway

in earnest, event premiums for ASML, TSMC, and Google were clearly lower than those

for the hyperscalers that will be reporting earnings this week (for details, see our 13 July

2026 report NomuraQuantInsights-ThreeimpedimentstoAImomentumrecovery;

crudeoilvolatilityamidrenewedMiddleEastrisk;GPIFcomments). In other words, even