JPY Intraday Comment

Research evidence excerpt

JPY Intraday Comment

Global Markets Research

27 July 2026JPY Intraday Comment

Foreign Exchange - Global

Research Analysts

Shorts getting covered Global FX Strategy

Yujiro Goto - NSC

The Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating is falling, while she continues to yujiro.goto@nomura.com

strongly push for “responsible and proactive fiscal policy”. +81 3 6703 1120

Yusuke Miyairi, CFA - NIplc

• Short JPY positions are being covered following the US ceasefire news, indicating yusuke.miyairi@nomura.com

speculative market positions were the primary driver of USD/JPY gains. Today’s JPY +44 (0) 20 7102 4145

price action could provide the MOF with a justification to intervene.

Tomoki Hideshima - NSC

• The Takaichi Cabinet’s approval rating has been declining across major polls, tomoki.hideshima@nomura.com

although gauging the market impact of this is highly contentious. Takaichi continued +81 3 6703 1427

pushing “responsible and proactive fiscal policy” at her press conference today. Yuki Kodera - NSC

yuki.kodera@nomura.com • Japan’s services inflation data continue to support a BOJ hike, and how the Bank

+81 3 6703 1281

determines whether inflation expectations have increased is key in projecting its rate

path. We expect no policy change at the July meeting, so Ueda’s statements during

the press conference will be key.

Fig. 1: Net JPY positions in CFTC data Fig. 2: Public opinion poll on the approval rating of the

Takaichi Cabinet

Source: Macrobond, Nomura

Source: List of media outlets in the figure, Nomura

Short JPY positions are being covered after the US ceasefire

Since last Friday, the US has refrained from attacks on Iran to allow time for diplomacy to

progress. This triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices on Monday and a consequent