JFE Holdings

Research evidence excerpt

JFE Holdings

Global Markets Research

27 July 2026JFE Holdings

5411.T 5411 JP / EQUITY: JAPAN STEEL, NONFERROUS METALS, WIRE & CABLE

RatingRevising our forecasts: We expect underlying

Remains Neutralprofits to recover from 28/3

Target price

Reduced from 2,160 JPY 1,820Challenge will be stabilizing steel segment’s earnings base in Japan

Closing price JPY 1,726.0We keep our Neutral rating, expect business profits to carry on rising but think 24 July 2026

company needs to stabilize earnings in Japan

We trim our forecast for JFE Holdings' 27/3 business profits adjusted for one-time factors Implied upside +5.4%

such as inventory valuation gains/losses but nudge up our forecasts for 28/3 onwards. We

forecast adjusted business profits down slightly y-y in 27/3 because of higher costs

resulting from the situation in the Middle East, but forecast (1) profit growth in 28/3 as the

company passes on higher costs to prices, and (2) sustained modest profit growth Relative performance chart

thereafter, driven in part by overseas operations. We roll forward the base year for our

target price calculation to 28/3 now that the fiscal year is well underway, and calculate our

target price by applying a P/E of around 8x to our adjusted EPS forecast. We raise our

28/3 adjusted EPS forecast, but we lower our target price, as we widen the discount we

apply to the Russell/Nomura Large Cap manufacturing sector average P/E from 25% to

50% as we forecast lower medium-term EPS growth than the benchmark average. We

think a rise in the share price will require (1) an improvement in nonconsolidated earnings

at steel segment subsidiary JFE Steel, which was loss-making at the operating level for

the two years through 26/3, and (2) moves to strengthen and stabilize JFE Holdings'

earnings base in Japan.