Tractor Supply: 2026 Looks Largely De-Risked; 2027 Coming Down But "When" Cyclical Headwinds Abate Remains Elusive; Algo Drop More a 2027 Comment; CFO Takes

Research evidence excerpt

Tractor Supply: 2026 Looks Largely De-Risked; 2027 Coming Down But "When" Cyclical Headwinds Abate Remains Elusive; Algo Drop More a 2027 Comment; CFO Takes

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 July 2026

Tractor Supply

2026 Looks Largely De-Risked; 2027 Coming Down But Neutral

“When” Cyclical Headwinds Abate Remains Elusive; TSCO, TSCO US

Algo Drop More a 2027 Comment; CFO Takes Price (23 Jul 26):$30.32

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$35.00

Prior (Dec-26):$48.00

PM’s take: 2026 appears de-risked with the algo withdrawal, more about the

cyclical “when”; Street likely coming lower in 2027. Overall, TSCO’s results Retailing – Broadlines & Hardlines /

Leisureand guidance came in-line with muted expectations. The company also withdrew

its 3-5% SSS/10-10.5% op margin/8-11% EPS algo from its 2024 analyst day Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

(Figure 3). That said, mgmt indicated in follow up that it still views itself as a growth (1-212) 622-1316

christopher.horvers@jpmorgan.com

company (no material cut to store growth expected) with the current headwinds

predominantly cyclical in nature (structural changes being the impact of digital Christian Carlino, CFA

(1-212) 622-9145

and delivery on the pet category, which it is accelerating its investment against to christian.carlino@jpmorgan.com

close the competitive gap). Ultimately, the “withdrawal” seems more relevant to

Jolie Wasserman

its 2027 expectations and the uncertainty on when the cyclical headwinds of (1-212) 622-1961

housing and pet adoption abate (with the long-term growth algo likely similar to jolie.wasserman@jpmchase.com

its existing outlook, or a hair below, when these do). The withdrawal only further J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

raises our expectations that the Street goes down further for 2027 (SSS=+2.3%