Asia Transport Ecosystems: Trade flows rewired: Navigating disruptions, capturing growth

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Transport Ecosystems: Trade flows rewired: Navigating disruptions, capturing growth

liners remain cautious about fully resuming Suez transits due

to ongoing security risks, and the effective supply/demand balance is much

tighter than headlines suggest. Spot freight rates have rebounded sharply since

March, with Q2 revenue for container liners poised to rise c.20–30% Y/Y. This

is translating into strong earnings momentum for the sector, and we see further

upside as the market continues to reprice the true supply-demand balance.

• Bulk shipping is seeing a structural uplift as longer voyage distances and

new trade patterns drive tonne-mile demand. The key driver is not just cargo

volume, but cargo volume multiplied by distance. El Niño is poised to force

Asia to import grain from farther locations, increasing voyage times and

tightening effective vessel supply. The ramp-up of Simandou iron ore exports

and ongoing Panama Canal constraints are also extending voyage durations.

Even if global seaborne trade volumes remain broadly unchanged, ships

complete fewer voyages over a given period, supporting freight markets. Pacific

Basin is our top pick, with its geared Handysize and Supramax fleet directly

exposed to these positive dynamics.

• Tanker shipping is benefiting from longer crude routes, a tight compliant

fleet, and more concentrated ownership, supporting a positive structural

view. The ongoing Middle East disruptions are shifting crude exports towards

longer-haul routes from West Africa and the US Gulf, increasing tonne-mile

demand. While high oil prices are slowing Chinese crude buying in the near

term, the underlying supply/demand balance remains favorable. COSCO

Shipping Energy is our preferred name, with the company well-positioned to