Hard Rocks & Heavy Metals: European Basic Materials & Industrials

Research evidence excerpt

Hard Rocks & Heavy Metals: European Basic Materials & Industrials

J P M O R G A N Europe Credit Research

24 July 2026

Hard Rocks & Heavy Metals

European Basic Materials & Industrials

Europe Corporate Credit - Basic

Materials and Industrials

Benjamin Defay AC

(33-1) 4015 5047

ben.defay@jpmorgan.com

In this note, we highlight recent publications and newsflow in the European Basic Guillaume Jouandin

Materials and Industrials sectors. (44-20) 7134-1538

guillaume.jouandin@jpmorgan.com

Hard pressed? Use the links to quickly navigate this note: Samuel Gosling

(44-20) 7134-0456

• Recent Publications samuel.gosling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• Sector Newsflow

• Earnings Calendar July - September 2026

• Recent Credit Ratings Changes

• Recent Issuance

• Recent M&A

• Materials Snapshot

• Sector Trading Performance and Relative Value

Recent Publications

• Ineos Group Holdings SA: Strait and narrow. The Middle East conflict and

the closure of the Strait of Hormuz gave INEOS a shot in the arm, with earnings,

cash flow and liquidity all improving materially thanks to a surge in

petrochemical prices, and IGH used this opportunity to refinance its near-term

maturities early. While the geopolitical backdrop remains highly volatile, we

do not view this situation as a structural change to the market. Chemical spot

prices have already fallen substantially from recent highs, which points to

lower contract prices in the coming months. As a result, we believe the

company will continue to generate negative free cash flow in 2026 and around

breakeven in 2027. With earnings likely to normalise in 2027 following an

exceptionally strong 2026, we expect JPM net leverage to stand at an elevated

6.8x at year-end 2027, with our bear case assuming 8.0x (vs. 5.4x at year-end

2026).