My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks · Insurance · Diversified Financials

Research evidence excerpt

My 2c on Financials: US Financials Sector Specialist Commentary Banks · Insurance · Diversified Financials

Rob O'Dwyer - Specialist Sales - US Financials AC North America Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nrob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 24 July 2026

My 2c on Financials

Rob O’Dwyer

+1 2126222673

rob.odwyer@jpmorgan.com

Key Highlights

• AXP - weaker topline

• FLG - latest regional bank to disappoint

• HIG - small beat, not a game changer

• KNSL - good underlying beat, hard to see downside from here

Morning - Mercifully a less hectic day today with the main focus being on AXP topline miss this morning. More on that below.

FLG numbers this morning are also poor and I do think the divergence between small regional banks and their larger cap peers is

really notable this quarter. A real case of the "haves" and "have nots". In insurance, I continue to believe that we're in the early

innings of a normalization and we continue to see trading activity on the desk that suggests LO are neutralizing UW positions. I

don't think that HIG or KNSL numbers today are in any way a green light for the stocks but equally they don't suggest huge

downside in the stocks (particularly KNSL, which has been a source of short alpha YTD).

AXP (=/-) EPS beat but driven by big reserve release. Small miss on topline and driven by card fees, which will be of concern to

some. Expenses inline. Definitely some nits to be picked in the quarter on the basis of the income statement but the core business

drivers look good still. From cohort perspective, Gen-Z and Millennial growth still very strong and way above trend (40% yoy

and 14% yoy, respectively). International decelerated markedly (suspect ME driven). Revenue guide upgraded from +9-10% to

10% but cons already there (cons +10.2%).