Greater China

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China

Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745 Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N

feng.zhu@jpmorgan.com jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com Greater China

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch 24 July 2026

Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

while electronic parts and components increased 3.4%m/m Figure 3: Taiwan exports vs. export orders

sa. Non-tech output advanced 4.6%m/m sa, led by petroleum Index, 2019 = 100, sa

500 Tech exportsand coal products, followed by base metals and machinery

and equipment. 400 Tech export orders -

350 produced onshore Overall tech export orders

Figure 2: Taiwan:tech and nontech manufacturing IP (level) 300

Index, 2019=100, sa 250

270 Tech IP 200

250 150

230 100

210 50 Tech export orders - offshore

190 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 170

150 Source: MOEA, J.P. Morgan

110 The MOEA’s annual export orders and overseas production

Nontech IP survey shows the China+1 shift continuing, with Mainland 70

50 China/Hong Kong SAR production falling further as firms

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Source: MOEA, J.P. Morgan diversify supply chains amid US-China trade tensions. In

contrast, ASEAN’s production share rose to a record high,

We had previously highlighted downside risks to 2Q GDP, as while production in the Americas also increased. ASEAN

imports outpaced export growth for the first time since 2Q25, remained the top destination for capacity expansion—led by

making net trade likely a drag on GDP growth. The June IP Vietnam—supported by large domestic markets, improving

strength helps mitigate this concern and potentially paves the industrial ecosystems, and diversification benefits, which

way for solid growth momentum in 2H.