Comfortably numb: The decayed impact of President Trump’s Truth Social posts about tariffs on rates markets

Research evidence excerpt

Comfortably numb: The decayed impact of President Trump’s Truth Social posts about tariffs on rates markets

Ipek Ozil AC (1-212) 834-2305 Emre Alptuna (1-212) 270-4843 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A Nipek.ozil@jpmorgan.com emre.alptuna@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 24 July 2026

Chris Hayward (1-212) 622-6152

chris.hayward@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Comfortably numb

The decayed impact of President Trump’s Truth Social posts

about tariffs on rates markets

• Voting in the 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Research Survey is nearly over. If our

work, including our flagship US Treasury Market Daily and US Fixed Income Markets

Weekly publications, weekly At Any Rate podcasts, thematic research pieces, and direct

dialogue, has been valuable to your investment process over the last year, we humbly

ask you to support J.P. Morgan in this year’s survey here

• Within the Global Fixed Income Research Survey, please search for our names within

the Voting Area search bar. Please vote 5 Stars for J.P. Morgan and us where we are listed

in the following categories: “Interest Rate Derivatives”, “U.S. Rates Strategy”, “Fixed-

Income Strategy”, and “Quantitative Analysis”

• We quantitatively investigate the impact of President Trump’s Truth Social posts about

tariffs on volatility in the 2Y yield within the 30 minutes following a post

• We show that the typical tariff-related post is not associated with elevated intraday

volatility, but a small fraction has clearly driven large intraday delivered vol

spikes, generally in the few months after ‘Liberation Day’

• A handful of President Trump’s posts about tariffs moved rates markets dramatically

when the topic was novel, but the reaction of rates markets to tariff-related posts has