US: FOMC preview

Research evidence excerpt

US: FOMC preview

J P M O R G A N North America Economic Research

24 July 2026

We expect the FOMC will leave rates on hold at the end of next week’s meeting. Economic and Policy Research

However, we think it will be a contested decision as some on the Committee are Michael Feroli

losing patience with above-target inflation, and we look for at least two hawkish (1-212) 834-5523

dissents (Hammack and Logan). There are no dots or SEP set to be released next michael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com

week, and it will be interesting to see if the statement evolves, as it has done for JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

much of this century, or whether it is effectively written afresh each meeting. If the

former, then we wouldn’t foresee many meaningful changes, as there have only

been modest changes in the narratives on employment and inflation since the last

meeting. We think there is a chance the Committee will use the statement to

indicate it understands that action may be needed to back up its resolve. We have

modest expectations for learning much from the post-meeting press conference. At

his recent Congressional testimony, Chair Warsh could again only describe his

views on current economic developments with very broad talking points. The

discount rate requests in the implementation note may provide some further

information on the views of non-voting FOMC participants.

There are sound arguments for hiking and holding next week, with the difference

usually coming down to one’s inflation forecast. We think the strongest case for

holding next week is that a hike would send a confusing signal about how the Fed

responds to data. The Committee voted unanimously at the last meeting to keep

rates on hold. Since then, we’ve had one inflation reading, and the core measure

was the softest in years.