Asia Pacific Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Economic Research

Charnon Boonnuch (65) 6807 5086 Siddharth Jamad (65) 6807-5503 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N

charnon.boonnuch@jpmorgan.com siddharth.jamad@jpmorgan.com ASEAN

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch 24 July 2026

Jin Tik Ngai (65) 6807 5556

jintik.ngai@jpmorgan.com

the 1.5-2.5% MAS forecast range. Thailand: Persistent goods trade deficit

The goods trade deficit widened to USD6.5bn in June from

MAS preview: Expecting a hawkish pause USD5.5bn in May (Figure 3), driven by a surge in capital

With year-ago core inflation in June (1.6%oya) and 1H26 goods and raw materials, as energy imports moderated along-

(1.4%oya) printing close to the lower bound of the MAS fore- side lower energy prices.

cast range (1.5-2.5%), we believe that MAS has the room to

remain patient in assessing risks to the growth-inflation out- The strength in capital goods imports provides further evi-

look amid the recent re-acceleration in global energy prices. dence supporting our view of an investment boom following

Accordingly, we maintain our call for the MAS to leave its the elections. We reiterate our out-of-consensus forecasts for

FX policy settings unchanged at its July monetary policy 2026 GDP growth of 2.8% (Consensus: 1.9%) and a current

review next week (July 27th), though we do expect the cen- account deficit of 2.2% of GDP (Consensus: a 1.0% surplus).

tral bank to continue stressing upside risks to inflation. But

beyond this, if oil prices stabilize around their current levels Figure 3: Thailand - Goods trade balance

(Brent: US$98 at the time of writing), we think it would raise USD, bn

the odds of another 50bp S$NEER slope tightening (current 4

slope estimate: 100bp) at the October review, though this is 2

not currently our base case.