Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

24 July 2026

Economic and Policy Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

• Global flights are now back at their 2025 level for the first time since April, maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

driven upwards by a sharp recovery in China. Global flights continue to JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

underperform their typical seasonal increase, but this gap is narrowing. Vehicle Artem Fakhretdinov

activity remains in line with its 2025 level and with seasonal norms. (1-212) 272-1839

artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

• EU natural gas inventories are increasingly lagging levels at this time last JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

year, raising concerns over the state of readiness heading into winter. US motor

gasoline inventories remain near a post-conflict low, well below 2025 levels.

• Brent crude prices jumped another 11%w/w amidst the ongoing US-Iran

tensions and US retail gas prices continue to drift back up, reaching $4.1.

Global retail fuel prices rose 2%w/w.

• Other product prices also continue to rise amid seasonally high demand and a

hindered recovery in flows through the Strait of Hormuz. European natural

gas prices made new YTD highs, rising above their March peak.

Daily flight numbers Petro-based product prices

%oya, 28d mov avg Natural gas Index, Feb 26, 2026= 100

9 Asia (ex-China) 200 Jet Europe (TTF)

6 Europe 175 fuel

3 US

-3 125

-6 100 US gasoline Brent crude Conflict China

-9 75 pump price

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Source: Rystad Energy, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

Activity tracking