FX Markets Weekly: Square One

Research evidence excerpt

FX Markets Weekly: Square One

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

24 July 2026

FX Markets Weekly

Square One

Global FX Strategy

Meera Chandan AC

(44-20) 7134-2924

meera.chandan@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Arindam Sandilya ACOutlook: Two focal issues: resurgence in energy prices and rising interest rates; both

(65) 6882-7759

supportive of USD and carry. Stay bullish USD pre-FOMC; USD has one-sided arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

sensitivity to oil and is undershooting rates. Higher energy prices boosting carry JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

returns as as exporters (importers) are high-yielders (funders). Empirical sensitivity Patrick R Locke

to energy prices is highest for the euro bloc (Figure 1EnergyimportsdependencyisthehighestforAsia,folowedbytheeurobloc,butempiricalFXsensitivitytoenergypricesishigherfortheeurobloc/EMEA(botomleft);EUR,SEKmostvulnerabletohigheroilamonglow-yielders). EUR vulnerable with gas prices (1-212) 834-4254

rising and regional storage low. BoJ, BoE unlikely to turn the tide for yen, GBP. Trade patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com

policy vol turning up, but only narrow FX implications for now. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Ladislav Jankovic

Macro Trade Recommendations: Stay long carry and long USD vs G10 low- (1-212) 834-9618

yielders into FOMC, backed by elevated energy prices. Long-GBP met take-profit ladislav.jankovic@jpmchase.com

conditions. Stay short CAD after tariffs. Long USD vs EUR, SEK, NZD, CAD, CHF. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Short CHF vs AUD, USD, HUF. Short SEK vs NOK, USD, AUD. Short CAD/MXN. James Nelligan

(44-20) 3493-6829

Emerging Markets FX: Reduce risk on renewed US/Iran conflict (here). Reduce james.nelligan@jpmorgan.com

OW EM FX by half; leaves OW LatAm, MW EMEA EM (from OW) and UW EM J.P.