Travelers Cos: 2Q26 Wrap: Raising EPS Slightly on Premium Growth and Greater Accretion from Buybacks

Research evidence excerpt

Travelers Cos: 2Q26 Wrap: Raising EPS Slightly on Premium Growth and Greater Accretion from Buybacks

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

24 July 2026

Travelers Cos Neutral

TRV, TRV US

2Q26 Wrap: Raising EPS Slightly on Premium Growth Price (23 Jul 26):$376.37

and Greater Accretion from Buybacks ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$348.00 Prior (Dec-27):$341.00

Raising EPS estimates and December 2027 price target from $341 to $348, no

change to our Neutral rating. Having said this, we recognize that TRV has the Insurance - Life & Nonlife

richest multiple in a sector (large cap P&C commercial lines) that we think is fully Pablo S. Singzon AC

valued overall, and where margins are more likely to compress than expand in the (1-212) 622-2295

next few years as softer pricing conditions get more fully reflected in results. pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

Timing this trend, however, is challenging due to the inherent volatility in Kevin Wijendra

insurance results (particularly in short-tail lines, which have been generally (1-212) 622-7054

kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

favorable in 2Q), and the multiple factors that go into setting long-tail loss picks. J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Travelers reported 2Q26 results on 7/17/26 and held its earnings call the same day.

• Raising EPS forecasts. Our EPS estimates are changing as follows: 3Q26 Key Changes (FYE Dec)

from $6.21 to $6.34, 4Q26 from $9.31 to $9.49, and 2027 from $27.77 to Prev Cur Δ

$28.10. The key adjustments to our model are (1) higher premium growth Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 28.55 33.58 17.6%

(better in business insurance and bond & specialty, worse in personal lines) and

(2) a lower share count from strong buybacks in 2Q26, partly offset by (3) Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

higher combined ratios, particularly in 2027.