Brazil weekly: A more eventful week

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil weekly: A more eventful week

AmericaBanco J.P. Morgan S.A. Latin Economic Research J P M O R G A N 24 July 2026Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

engineering—and, potentially, whether alliances translate into incremental TV/radio time

and broader centrist signaling. This matters less because VP picks typically swing many votes

directly, and more because they reveal coalition breadth, campaign resources, and the likely

tone of the race as the formal campaign period approaches.

Against that political backdrop, the US tariff shock has now moved from a headline risk to

an effective constraint. The 25% tariff is in force, and the U.S. government confirmed on July

23 the imposition of an additional 12.5% under Section 301. We see the impact as contained

at the aggregate level (given trade composition, exemptions, and potential export rerouting),

the sectoral impact and second-round channels—confidence, risk premia, and policy

reaction—are more relevant, especially in an election year where narrative framing can

influence expectations and financial conditions (Figure 2).

Figure 2: US weighted average tariff on Brazil's imports

%. Based on 2024 weights

50 38

40 33 28

30 20 16 20 12 13

10 1

Source: J.P. Morgan.

Importantly, the government has responded with the announcement of Brasil Soberano III,

expanding the support framework announced last year with up to R$18.5bn in credit lines

(Treasury resources reallocated from unused envelopes plus BNDES funding). The program

targets tariff-exposed sectors (including products covered by Section 232 and Section 301

measures) and extends to strategic sectors tied to the external accounts and supply-chain

concerns (including fertilizers and critical minerals). It offers differentiated lines (working