Thailand: Goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in June: reinforcing our high-conviction view on investment-led growth.

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand: Goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened in June: reinforcing our high-conviction view on investment-led growth.

Charnon Boonnuch Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A N(65) 6807 5086 25 July 2026

charnon.boonnuch@jpmorgan.com

not seen since 2012. Raw material goods imports were also strong, led by electronic

integrated circuits, tracking closely with the strong electronics exports.

Figure 3: Thailand - Capital goods imports and private investment Figure 4: Thailand - Tech and non-tech exports

%oya %oya

50 Private investment index 70 Tech

40 Capital goods imports 60

Non-tech 50 30

10 20

0 10

-10 0

-10 -20

May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 May-26 Jun-22 Jun-23 Jun-24 Jun-25 Jun-26

Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan. Note: Non-tech exports excluds non-monetary gold.

Tech-related export boom

Goods export growth also improved to 20.8%oya in June from 10.5% in May, above the

consensus forecast of 15.2% and our forecast of 18.5%. In sequential terms, goods export

growth swung to 4.8%m/m sa from -3.0%. The upside surprise to our forecast was caused by

a broad-based increase in tech-related products (i.e., hard disk drives, computer parts,

integrated circuits, and telecommunications devices), which grew by 66.0%oya from 32.5%

(Figure 4).

This broad-based acceleration in tech-related exports and rising imports of capital goods and

intermediate inputs likely reflect Thailand’s increasing integration into the regional tech

supply chain. According to the IMF’s recent assessment, Thailand is among the world’s

leading net exporters of AI-related hardware, alongside Taiwan, South Korea and Malaysia.1

J.P. Morgan’s view: Higher conviction on investment-led growth

The June trade data strengthens our conviction that Thailand has entered an investment-led