Nickel Dashboard: All eyes on Indonesia‘s nickel ore quota

Research evidence excerpt

Nickel Dashboard: All eyes on Indonesia‘s nickel ore quota

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

25 July 2026

Nickel Dashboard

All eyes on Indonesia’s nickel ore quota

LME nickel prices corrected ~15% in June, before rebounding ~6% in July ASEAN Metals, Indo Auto &

reaching USD17,233/t as of writing. The move was triggered by Indonesia's plan Consumer Research

to relax nickel ore quotas (RKAB), with initial reports mentioning an increase from Benny Kurniawan, CFA AC

260mn to 360mn wmt in 2026. The news was subsequently corrected with (62-21) 5291 8024

government officials mentioning the increase in ore quotas will be strictly to meet benny.kurniawan@jpmorgan.com

demand, rather than flood the market like in 2025. At the same time, nickel sulfate PT J.P. Morgan Sekuritas Indonesia

followed the LME nickel trajectory, but nickel pig iron (NPI) has remained flat Lyndon Fagan

since the beginning of June. Our channel checks with companies and traders (61-2) 9003-8648

lyndon.fagan@jpmorgan.com

indicate that saprolite ore prices have started to correct in July, down ~5USD/wmt J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

m/m (~7%) for grades between 1.6-1.7% Ni content. This entire situation should Anuja Mandvekar

result in an improvement in RKEF smelter profitability, with spreads likely (91-22) 6157-3369

exceeding ~USD3,000/t even for non-integrated operators. On the other side, anuja.mandvekar@jpmorgan.com

HPAL operators continue to suffer due to 1) heightened sulfur prices and 2) J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

increase in HPAL capacities over the next 2-3 years. At this rate, we expect several

HPAL projects in Indonesia to be delayed or canceled. On stocks, our regional

commodity analyst has just initiated coverage on Nickel Industries (NIC AU, rated

OW).