HG & HY Food for Thought: A quiet news week, AFLs, and a side of fries!

Research evidence excerpt

HG & HY Food for Thought: A quiet news week, AFLs, and a side of fries!

J P M O R G A N North America Credit Research

24 July 2026

HG & HY Food for Thought

A quiet news week, AFLs, and a side of fries!

North America Corporate Credit -

Consumer, Retailing, and Food &

Beverage

Carla Casella, CFA AC

(1-212) 270-6798

carla.casella@jpmorgan.com

Equities underperformed against credit (HG > HY) in a volatile Yaakov Musheyev

week. The S&P declined -1.6%, as an early-week semiconductor rebound (1-212) 834 5865

was more than offset by sharp post-earnings weakness in GOOGL and TSLA, yaakov.a.musheyev@jpmorgan.com

with investors increasingly focused on elevated AI capex spending and its Morgan Morrissey

near-term impact on free cash flow. Renewed escalation in the Middle East (1-212) 834-2383

conflict and attacks on regional shipping pushed Brent >$100/bbl, reviving morgan.morrissey@jpmorgan.com

inflation concerns and adding to the risk-off move. Next week’s data releases J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

include durable goods (est +1.5%), consumer confidence (est 92.3, prior

91.2), 2Q GDP report (est 2.3% Q/Q), PCE report (core est 3.3% Y/Y), and HY Food & Beverage Neutral

consumer sentiment (est 54.2, prior 54.4). Treasuries sold off, with the 5yr ARMK Neutral (N CDS)

+15bp to 4.43% and the 10yr +13bp to 4.68%. The JULI returned -0.9% BGS Neutral

this week, with HG Food/Bev slightly underperforming at -1.0%. JPHY BCULC Neutral

DAR Neutral

returned -0.60%, with HY Food/Bev roughly in line at -0.58%. By ratings, LW Neutral (UW CDS)

As and BBBs were both -0.9%, while were BBs -0.59%, Bs -0.56%, and PFGC Neutral

CCCs -0.82%. Neutral (OW ‘30s, UW

POST

CDS)

On the news front this week, ADM’s Outlook was revised to Stable from PRMB Neutral

THS Neutral