Lamb Weston: Another Sizzling Earnings Report Doesn‘t Heat Up the Share Price — Thoughts on the Path Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

Lamb Weston: Another Sizzling Earnings Report Doesn‘t Heat Up the Share Price — Thoughts on the Path Ahead

se this fall. LW made the case on today’s earnings call that customer Q3 0.72 0.96 1.07

relationships, quality of service, and innovation remained key drivers of Q4 0.87 0.69 0.80

customer wins – not just price points. Its messaging about more customers FY 3.02 3.01 3.41

showing interest in margin-accretive limited time offerings was also

Style Exposure

encouraging. It helps price/mix that LW instituted a price increase on

foodservice customers earlier in CY26 and that contacts have escalators for

fuel charges. That said, it is unclear to what extent LW’s competitors that have

ceded this share might be more aggressive this fall in trying to win back some

of the business that they lost. LW’s guidance seems to assume that this will not

be a problem, and perhaps that will be the case. But prior to CY26, LW’s market

share had been weaker than it anticipated in part because of competitive

bidding.

• For the International business, this year’s expected improvement is more

about self-help than an improving industry environment (though it is a

factor too). The industry has faced pressure from the confluence of weaker

demand (especially in Europe), capacity additions in markets (especially

China and India) that historically rely on exports, and an abnormally large

potato crop in Europe causing stepped up price competition. The potato cost

environment should be better for LW following this fall’s harvest (though hot

weather could raise LW’s costs by slightly more than it initially anticipated).

The company detailed on the earnings call how demand trends in continental

were more stable lately Europe, with declines in the UK. But more significant