Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico

Gabriel Lozano (52-55) 5540-9558 Latin America Economic Research J P M O R G A N

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com Mexico

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero 24 July 2026

Santiago Homberg Saury (52-55) 5540-9499

santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P. Morgan Grupo Financiero

The details showed that the decline was driven by a Figure 4: Effective tariff rate

0.8%samr contraction in industrial production, which was %

released a couple of weeks ago and reversed part of the previ- 35 30.8 Dec 25 May 26

ous month’s gains, even if the underlying details were not 30

notably weak. Services remained resilient, rising 0.2%samr, 25 21.9

while agriculture, which carries a relatively small weight in 20

the overall index, declined 0.5%samr. 15 11.8

9.3 8.5 7.7 6.9 10 6.5

4.3 3.7 3.1 3.1

USMCA discussions and 301 tariffs in focus 5

Mexico and the US held their first round of negotiations since CHN ASEAN World EU MEX CAN

the decision not to automatically renew the USMCA agree- Source: J.P. Morgan with data from the US Census Bureau

ment on July 1. Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard stated that

progress had been made on key issues, like steel, aluminium Data releases and forecasts

and transshipment, and announced a fourth round of talks to

Week of July 27-31discuss the auto sector in September.

Mon Trade balance

As a result, and given the advances made between Mexico

Jul 27 Mar Apr May Jun

and the US relative to the slower progress observed between

Balance (US$

Canada and the US, we are revising our probability distribu- 8:00am bn) 5.9 4.5 2.3

tion to assign a higher likelihood to an eventual bilateral out- Exports (US$

70.7 72.0 69.5

come (Figure 3). Nonetheless, because thorny issues must bn)