US Agencies and $-SSAs: Onwards and upwards

Research evidence excerpt

US Agencies and $-SSAs: Onwards and upwards

Liam L Wash AC (1-212) 834-5230 Jay Barry (1-212) 834-4951 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

liam.wash@jpmchase.com john.f.barry@jpmorgan.com US Agencies and $-SSAs

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC J.P. Morgan Securities LLC 24 July 2026

Pankaj Vohra (1-212) 834 5292

pankaj.x.vohra@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

US Agencies

US Agency net issuance continues to expand at a robust clip, with another $19bn

through June across the three issuers we track, and total debt outstanding rising by

$204bn YTD, the firmest pace since 2022 (Figure 1USAgencydebtoutstandinghasincreasedby$204bnYTD,thefirmestpaceofisuancesince202.). Indeed, total debt outstanding

from the FHLBs, FNMA, and FHLMC now stands at its highest level over the past

decade, outside of crisis periods. Within the details, this deluge of supply remains

concentrated in FHLB discount notes and floaters (Figure 2.andisuancehasprimarilycomefromtheFHLBsintheformofFRNsandDNs). What has been the driving

force behind the recent FHLB supply? As we have discussed previously, we think there

has been a structural shift higher in advance demand, particularly from the growing

share represented by insurance companies who enter into funding agreements with the

FHLBs to earn favorable spreads on their investments, which have been boosted by

growing annuity sales (see US Agencies and $-SSAs, 6/12/26).

Figure 1: US Agency debt outstanding has increased by $204bn YTD, Figure 2: ...and issuance has primarily come from the FHLBs in the

the firmest pace of issuance since 2022... form of FRNs and DNs

Annual Agency net debt issuance*, total and by issuer; $bn 2026 net debt issuance* from FHLB, FNMA, and FHLMC by product type; $bn

FHLB Discos Fixed-rate Floaters Callables YTD