Mexico weekly: Improved growth and inflation outlook amidst trade headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico weekly: Improved growth and inflation outlook amidst trade headwinds

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

24 July 2026

Mexico weekly

Improved growth and inflation outlook amidst trade

headwinds

EM, Economics Research

Gabriel Lozano

(52-55) 5540-9558

gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com

Banco J.P.Morgan, S.A., Institución de Banca

Múltiple, J.P.Morgan Grupo Financiero

See our full research on Economics: Mexico Santiago Homberg Saury

(52-55) 5540-9499

• Preliminary July CPI at 3.1%oya, core now below 4% santiago.hombergsaury@jpmchase.com

• We now expect both year-end headline and core at 3.9%oya J.P.MorganMorganGrupoCasaFinancierode Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

• May GDP proxy fell 0.3%samr as April was revised up from an already

high level (1.4% from 1.2%)

• Next week’s flash GDP for 2Q is now eyed at 7%saar, consistent with

1.4%y/y for 2026

This week was marked by important trade developments and key economic data

releases. While Mexico and the US wrapped up a new round of USMCA bilateral

negotiations, the US also announced the imposition of forced-labor tariffs,

affecting a broader set of countries. Nevertheless, the move could ultimately

improve Mexico’s already strong relative tariff position given that the exemption

for USMCA-compliant exports remains in place, a factor that has provided a much-

needed lift to exports. June trade data out next week should continue to evidence

net exports as the spearhead of the recovery in demand.

Beyond trade developments, inflation in the first half of July came in 10bps above

Banxico’s 3% target, supported by lower non-core prices and signs that

inflationary pressures within services are beginning to fade. As a result, we now

expect year-end headline and core inflation at 3.9%oya. Meanwhile, the May GDP