JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - Show Me the Money!

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | Marissa’s Macro Musings - Show Me the Money!

Specialist Sales

US Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

24 July 2026

Marissa Gitler

+1 212 622 2934

marissa.gitler@jpmorgan.com

US Thematics focuses on key macro views, market debates, and favored investment themes.

This Week’s Musings:

AI CAPEX Sentiment Has Shifted to a “Show Me the ROI” Regime: Despite hyperscalers meeting elevated CAPEX

expectations, markets are punishing near-term FCF dilution and rewarding only tangible short-duration returns. The

proliferation of open-weight AI models adds a wrinkle. While net positive for infrastructure demand (Jevons paradox), it

threatens proprietary model monetization and creates risk across the AI stack.

Energy-Driven Macro Regime Shift is Repricing the Fed and Compressing Risk Appetite: Brent breaking $100/bbl on

geopolitical risk has catalyzed a material hawkish repricing, with July hike odds now at ~36% and September effectively

fully priced. This is a potential stagflationary impulse layered on top of an already AI-inflationary capex cycle, creating a

challenging backdrop for risk assets. Energy longs built throughout July suggest the panic move may be partially exhausted

near-term, but a sustained higher oil range keeps the Fed optionality skewed hawkish.

Rate Volatility is the Critical Tail Risk Variable for Equities: The recent long-end yield move has been predominantly

real-rate driven (growth + supply), but is now re-incorporating inflation risk via the oil channel, creating a flattening bias in

fixed income. Critically, it is the velocity of yield moves rather than absolute levels that historically drives equity de-rating.

A disorderly yield spike is the risk, particularly to small caps.